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MacroX has anticipated key economic momentum shifts ahead of official releases — consistently. 27 calls across US, UK and EU.
MacroX Real-Time Econ State Anticipates Citi-Econ Surprises by 1–3 Months
Results control for the auto-regression and are significant for the US, UK, and other countries
EUR Citi Surprise Variance Explanation over Horizon
(above AR)
Rsq Lift vs. AR
T-stat
MacroX T-stat (after AR) — Right Axis
MacroX Rsq. Lift vs. AR — Left Axis
MacroX real-time economic state explains significantly more Citi surprise variance than the auto-regressive benchmark, peaking at T-stat of 7.2 two months ahead.
Source: Citi Economic Surprise Index, MacroX Economic State
MacroX Calls
Official Data Release
2023
Jul 23, 2023🇺🇸
MacroX Nowcasts Show No Recession
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
Jul 23, 2023
Nov 15, 2023
Nov 15, 2023🇺🇸
The Elusive Soft Landing Is Coming Into View
Govt. Data ReleaseWSJ
2024
May 9, 2024🇺🇸
MacroX Inflation Drivers show CPI Declining
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
May 9, 2024
Jun 12, 2024
Jun 12, 2024🇺🇸
May CPI Report: Inflation Cooler Than Expected
Govt. Data ReleaseWSJ
Jul 11, 2024
Jul 11, 2024🇺🇸
Tame US June CPI smoothes path for Fed ease
Govt. Data ReleaseReuters
Aug 2, 2024🇺🇸
Jobless Claims is Head Fake
Official Data Noise
Aug 2, 2024
Aug 2, 2024🇺🇸
100 bps+ cuts priced is excessive
Anticipate CB Proj
Aug 2, 2024
Aug 8, 2024
Aug 8, 2024🇺🇸
Low US weekly IJC & upbeat retail sales dispel recession fears
Govt. Data ReleaseReuters
Oct 4, 2024
Oct 4, 2024🇺🇸
Sep jobs rebound slashes odds of another aggressive Fed cut
Govt. Data ReleaseBarron's
Dec 2024
Dec 2024🇺🇸
Fed cuts 25 bps, totaling 100bps this year
Govt. Data ReleaseFed
2025
Jan/Feb 2025🇬🇧
Continued disinflation will allow BOE to cut more than priced
Anticipate CB Proj
Jan/Feb 2025
Feb 20, 2025🇺🇸
IJC likely to spike due to DOGE
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
Feb 20, 2025
Feb 27, 2025
Feb 27, 2025🇺🇸
Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for US labor market
Govt. Data ReleaseCNN
Apr 30, 2025🇺🇸
MacroX: Economic Activity Higher and Inflation Lower than Expected
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
Apr 30, 2025
May 2025🇪🇺
MacroX Nowcasts show Growth Better than Expected
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
May 2025
Jun 2025🇺🇸
Q3 Growth is better than Fed expects
Anticipate CB Proj
Jun 2025
Jun-Sep 2025
Jun-Sep 2025🇪🇺
ECB raised Growth projections in June and Sept
Govt. Data ReleaseECB
Jul 30, 2025
Jul 30, 2025🇺🇸
Rebound in US growth in Q2 masks underlying slowing trend
Govt. Data ReleaseReuters
Sep 4, 2025🇺🇸
Q4: Market Pricing of ~100% chance of Dec cut is aggressive
Anticipate CB Proj
Sep 4, 2025
Sep 17, 2025
Sep 17, 2025🇺🇸
Sep 2025 FOMC - Fed Updates Growth Projection
Govt. Data ReleaseFed
Sep 2025🇬🇧
BOE will be able to cut 25bps more in Dec
Anticipate CB Proj
Sep 2025
Oct 29, 2025
Oct 29, 2025🇺🇸
Powell pushed back against current market pricing
Govt. Data ReleaseFed
Nov 2025
Nov 2025🇬🇧
BOE have cut 75bps as of Nov
Govt. Data ReleaseBOE
Dec 2025
Dec 2025🇬🇧
BOE cuts 25bps in Dec
Govt. Data ReleaseBOE
2026
Q4 2025🇺🇸
Q4 Growth is less than GDPNow and Consensus
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
Q4 2025
Q4 2025
Q4 2025🇺🇸
US Q4 2025 GDP
Govt. Data ReleaseFed
Q4 2025🇬🇧
Q4 2025 UK GDP
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
Q4 2025
Anticipating Momentum Shifts
Anticipate CB Proj
Official Data Noise
Govt. Data Release
Prediction → Outcome