US Q2 GDP Update


Key Takeaway

  • Q2 economic growth came in at 2.4%, surprising analysts but in line with MacroX’s Nowcast

As we explained in our previous post, MacroX has been consistently more optimistic about the US economy than consensus. This optimism has been justified by the BEA’s advance estimate for Q2 economic growth (released on 07/27), with the US economy expanding 2.4% on an annual basis – in line with both our Nowcast and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Nowcast.

In contrast, analysts’ consensus expectations for annualized economic growth in Q2 2023 had been 1.8%; a slowdown from Q1 growth (estimated at 2% annualized) and below-trend as shown below:

Fig1: The advance estimate for Q2 GDP came in notably higher than analyst estimates in keeping with our alternative data generated Nowcast

This again highlights the importance of “more nowcasting, less forecasting” – using alternative data to generate real-time insights into the macroeconomy can outperform traditional forecasting methods and still provide accurate data months in advance of traditional government data sources.

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